Fourth, most states, not just Bihar, showed strident growth in the last five years. This fits well with the boom in national GDP in 2004-09, so the state data look plausible.

Fifth, state governments usually want to claim that they are in dire straits and so merit additional funds from New Delhi. Back in the 1970s, I found that Kashmir was for some time the fastest growing state in India, and went to Srinagar to ask what accounted for fast growth. To my surprise, state officials and politicians were dismayed at my questions. They were used to moaning and groaning about their poverty and the need for more central hand-outs, so they looked on me almost as an enemy.

For these reasons, I believe that the economic boom in Bihar is real, not a statistical fudge. A visit to Bihar provides plenty of anecdotal proof. In Lalu’s time, anybody building a house or booking a new car promptly got a ransom note. Today home construction and car sales are booming. Traffic jams have replaced deserted streets.

In Lalu’s time, swaggering goons showed off their guns in public. Today no gunman is visible. The Nitish administration has convicted 38,000 people, including dozens of politicians, some from the ruling party itself — for violating the Arms Act.

The old cloud of fear has been replaced by peace and confidence. Safety has allowed small businesses to burst into activity. Women say they are no longer afraid to walk the streets. Sunil Mittal of Bharti Airtel says Bihar has the fastest growth of talk-time in any state.

The economic miracle has been led by construction, which has averaged a colossal growth rate of 47% per year for the last five years. Government development spending has zoomed from Rs 2,000 crore to Rs 16,000 crore per year. Most impressive has been the rise in road construction, from 384 kilometres in 2004-05 to 2,417 kilometres in 2008-09. Security plus road and telecom expansion have incubated a boom in small business and domestic construction.

However, large-scale industry remains on the sidelines. Organized sector output actually fell in the Lalu era from Rs 1,150 crore in 1999-00 to Rs 790 crore in 2004-05 at constant prices, and has stagnated under Nitish. Many large industries have proposed big investments, but these will be pursued only if Nitish is re-elected.